Updates as of 2/25/2025 Due to new Catalyst: BC Partners Investment
Key Takeaways:
• BC Partners investment of up to 150 million dollars signals an imminent acquisition.
• LOGC will have up to 300 million dollars in cash and 2.7 billion dollars in net operating losses available for deal-making.
• Institutional accumulation continues with Steel Partners, Schonfeld, Ayal Capital, and Citadel maintaining strong positions.
• Market mispricing remains an opportunity as LOGC’s tax asset is still undervalued.
• A pathway to 30 dollars per share exists if an acquisition materializes and NOLs are properly utilized.
1. BC Partners’ 150 million dollar Investment: A Game Changer
LOGC announced a 150 million dollar strategic investment from BC Partners, a global investment firm managing approximately 40 billion dollars in assets. This deal confirms LOGC’s acquisition-focused strategy, gives LOGC up to 300 million dollars in investible capital, strengthens leadership with Ted Goldthorpe of BC Partners becoming Chairman, and provides flexibility for a transformative transaction.
What this means:
The deal validates the thesis that LOGC is actively pursuing an M&A transaction. BC Partners’ track record suggests a high-probability acquisition in the near term.
2. LOGC’s NOL Asset: A Hidden Goldmine
LOGC retains 2.7 billion dollars in net operating loss carryforwards, making it one of the most attractive special situations plays in the market. These NOLs make LOGC an attractive acquisition target because they allow the acquiring company to offset future taxable income.
Market still does not appreciate this asset:
• Institutional buyers have been positioning for this value realization, with notable funds accumulating LOGC.
• Similar NOL-driven transactions in history have resulted in 2x to 5x price appreciation post-transaction.
BC Partners: New position, up to 41.6 percent ownership in LOGC Holdings
Why this matters:
• Steel Partners’ history of successful activist plays suggests they are involved in a restructuring plan.
• Citadel and Schonfeld’s trading activity points to bullish positioning.
• BC Partners’ capital infusion confirms that an acquisition strategy is actively underway.
4. Valuation and Upside Potential
Given LOGC’s cash position, NOL monetization potential, and activist backing, the stock remains undervalued.
Cash post-Qoo10 deal: 6 dollars per share
NOL Tax Shield Potential: 10 to 15 dollars per share
Strategic Premium for M&A: 5 to 10 dollars per share
Total estimated upside: 20 to 30 dollars per share
5. Next Steps and Key Catalysts
What we are watching:
1. Acquisition Announcement: BC Partners’ structured deal indicates a transaction is already in the works. A reasonable timeline for an M&A event is within the next three to six months.
2. Institutional Accumulation: The next round of 13F filings in May will confirm if more hedge funds are increasing positions.
3. NOL Utilization Strategy: LOGC’s approach to structuring a deal, whether through a merger, buyout, or asset acquisition.
4. Stock and Options Activity: Any surge in options volume could signal pending market moves.
With BC Partners leading a structured capital infusion, a clear roadmap for acquisitions, and institutional players aligned, LOGC is positioned as a high-upside special situation investment. The market has not fully priced in the M&A upside, creating an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity.
We will monitor developments closely and provide further updates on catalysts as they emerge.
Updates as of 2/25/2025 Due to new Catalyst: BC Partners Investment
Key Takeaways:
• BC Partners investment of up to 150 million dollars signals an imminent acquisition.
• LOGC will have up to 300 million dollars in cash and 2.7 billion dollars in net operating losses available for deal-making.
• Institutional accumulation continues with Steel Partners, Schonfeld, Ayal Capital, and Citadel maintaining strong positions.
• Market mispricing remains an opportunity as LOGC’s tax asset is still undervalued.
• A pathway to 30 dollars per share exists if an acquisition materializes and NOLs are properly utilized.
1. BC Partners’ 150 million dollar Investment: A Game Changer
LOGC announced a 150 million dollar strategic investment from BC Partners, a global investment firm managing approximately 40 billion dollars in assets. This deal confirms LOGC’s acquisition-focused strategy, gives LOGC up to 300 million dollars in investible capital, strengthens leadership with Ted Goldthorpe of BC Partners becoming Chairman, and provides flexibility for a transformative transaction.
What this means:
The deal validates the thesis that LOGC is actively pursuing an M&A transaction. BC Partners’ track record suggests a high-probability acquisition in the near term.
2. LOGC’s NOL Asset: A Hidden Goldmine
LOGC retains 2.7 billion dollars in net operating loss carryforwards, making it one of the most attractive special situations plays in the market. These NOLs make LOGC an attractive acquisition target because they allow the acquiring company to offset future taxable income.
Market still does not appreciate this asset:
• Institutional buyers have been positioning for this value realization, with notable funds accumulating LOGC.
• Similar NOL-driven transactions in history have resulted in 2x to 5x price appreciation post-transaction.
3. Institutional Support: Smart Money is Here
Recent 13F filings show strong accumulation:
Steel Partners: 1,256,919 shares held, 186,827 shares added
Schonfeld Strategic: 1,045,626 shares held, 60,778 shares added
Ayal Capital: 827,335 shares held
Citadel Advisors: 317,888 shares held, 172,706 shares added
BC Partners: New position, up to 41.6 percent ownership in LOGC Holdings
Why this matters:
• Steel Partners’ history of successful activist plays suggests they are involved in a restructuring plan.
• Citadel and Schonfeld’s trading activity points to bullish positioning.
• BC Partners’ capital infusion confirms that an acquisition strategy is actively underway.
4. Valuation and Upside Potential
Given LOGC’s cash position, NOL monetization potential, and activist backing, the stock remains undervalued.
Cash post-Qoo10 deal: 6 dollars per share
NOL Tax Shield Potential: 10 to 15 dollars per share
Strategic Premium for M&A: 5 to 10 dollars per share
Total estimated upside: 20 to 30 dollars per share
5. Next Steps and Key Catalysts
What we are watching:
1. Acquisition Announcement: BC Partners’ structured deal indicates a transaction is already in the works. A reasonable timeline for an M&A event is within the next three to six months.
2. Institutional Accumulation: The next round of 13F filings in May will confirm if more hedge funds are increasing positions.
3. NOL Utilization Strategy: LOGC’s approach to structuring a deal, whether through a merger, buyout, or asset acquisition.
4. Stock and Options Activity: Any surge in options volume could signal pending market moves.
With BC Partners leading a structured capital infusion, a clear roadmap for acquisitions, and institutional players aligned, LOGC is positioned as a high-upside special situation investment. The market has not fully priced in the M&A upside, creating an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity.
We will monitor developments closely and provide further updates on catalysts as they emerge.